Managing Climate Variability
Making profit when the dust is blowing

Tom and Margaret Porter
'Te-Aro' Hay NSW

Farming in a remote area has proved no barrier for Tom Porter, who accesses climate and weather information from all over the world on a daily basis.

'Te-Aro' is a 5500 hectare dryland grazing property with a small amount of irrigation, which has been in the Porter family since 1884. It straddles the wheat-sheep and pastoral zones in south west NSW, with an average annual rainfall of 350mm.

Tom uses the Internet to access long range climate information. This helps him make critical decisions about buying and selling cattle, an important seasonal sideline to his major business of breeding first cross merino lambs.

Tom Porter on his property

'The Southern Oscillation Index is an important tool for me, along with historic rainfall records, satellite maps and the Bureau of Meteorology long-range forecasts' said Tom.

'From my own observations over time I've worked out some climate patterns in this area. The SOI seems to run in 12 - 18 month cycles. If its been a good season for 12 - 18 months and the SOI starts to head down, then look out!

'Often I find if we get rain before January, then it won't rain in the Autumn. On the other hand, if it stays dry in summer, often we'll get an early rain in the Autumn.

'There's another pattern I use a lot - if we've had a drought, a bad Autumn through to Spring, the chances are very high that its going to rain in Autumn the following year. It's rare for a drought to go more than one year.'

Tom's trading of cattle is heavily dependent on seasonal factors and availability of feed, so his study of the SOI and the long-term indicators has an immediate and practical application.

'I've actually bought cattle when the dust has been blowing and they're virtually giving them away because of the drought and within a couple of months it's completely different outlook because it has rained' said Tom.

'I've done that several times. It takes a lot of courage though and it helps if they're cheap. I certainly wouldn't be buying dear ones! You have to be getting them at a very big discount.

Tom has made similar decisions several times in the last six or seven years. Each such successful decision is worth around $30,000 to the enterprise. Because the cattle trading is opportunistic, the climate information allows Tom to know when to take a risk. It has fewer applications in the sheep side of the business, as Tom must maintain a nucleus of sheep at all times.

'We've had a reasonable SOI for the last 12 months and now its starting to head down' said Tom.

'With these indications I'd be cautious and I certainly wouldn't be buying cattle. I'd be looking at the SOI, together with what the weather has actually done from September to January.

'A falling SOI doesn't mean its not going to rain, but it means that the chances of it not raining are quite a lot higher.'

Tom's use of climate information took a big leap two years ago when he hooked up to the Internet and began exploring the huge amount of information available in Australia and overseas.

In his spare time at night, Tom gradually built his own web site with an extensive series of links to agricultural information sources in many countries.

www.bushlink.com.au  allows Tom, and anyone else who visits the site, to access climate, weather, news and market information.

'I've put links to all the useful climate and weather stuff that I've been able to find on the Internet on my own web site' said Tom.

'I check out the SOI and sites like the ten day precipitation forecast from the US, which is more accurate than anything we have here. On a big site like the Bureau of Meteorology it can be hard to find what you want, so I've put in links to useful parts of that site.

'I've tried to put what most people in the bush are looking for on my site so they don't have to muck around with search engines. A fair few people use it.'

Tom says that having access to climate and weather information helps him to make decisions more quickly.

'I'm inclined to unload surplus stock earlier, which is good for the land when there is no rain' said Tom.

'I have a bit less stress from having this information. I know where I'm going a little bit more.

'Farmers should definitely get on the Internet to find out about climate. Everything you want is there.'