High fire danger
Oliver Raymond
Australian Paper Plantations
Morwell VIC
Oliver Raymond is responsible for controlling fires and minimising fire damage to 82,000 hectares of company-owned pine and eucalyptus plantations in Victoria. As fire and harvesting forester with Australian Paper Plantations, Oliver is constantly searching for ways to minimise plantation fire losses. While daily weather information is critical to his job, longer-term climate outlooks are becoming more important for planning fire protection measures and making planting decisions. |  |
'The first thing I look at in a season is the Southern Oscillation Index prediction. I can usually tell by May what the coming summer is likely to be like, though there have been some major exceptions.
'I then work off a combination of the SOI and the drought index, which is a daily figure worked out from temperature and rainfall.
'If it looks like it's going to be a bad fire season, I alert the helicopter charter agency as early as May and I start sending them drought information on a weekly basis.
'The trigger point for actually bringing the helicopter here and having it on standby is when the drought index reaches a figure of 70. From that point, the pilot is here in the control room ready to react to a fire.
'The drought figures only cover temperature and rainfall - neither the Drought Index or the SOI give an indication of the wind conditions in a season. No matter what the season is like, if you get a day which is hot, dry and extremely windy, you are likely to get a bad fire.
'But the climate outlook will really give me a nudge to prepare well in advance for a bad season' said Oliver. 'Although its hard to correlate the SOI with rainfall in this area, I can't afford to divorce it from the Drought Index - together they are very useful.'
Oliver's responsibilities cover not only Australian Paper's holdings, but any other fires that start in areas close by. His unit is part of Victoria's Country Fire Authority and works with volunteer firefighters over an area of around 100km in each direction from the head office.
Australian Paper Plantations also uses the seasonal outlook to plan its planting operations, which involve establishing 1300 hectares of pine and 1300 hectares of bluegum each year.
'We have to start preparing up to 12 months ahead in terms of land preparation and getting seedlings and cuttings started' said Oliver.
'Because of the nature of the operation, we plant regardless of climatic influences. Each year we put in the same amount and the trees take their chances.'
'However the timing of planting is influenced by the seasonal outlook and we stay flexible. Our research shows a strong correlation between early planting and survival so we are always trying to get the plants in as soon as there's enough rainfall.'
'Some years give a very good correlation between SOI and rainfall. If it was more accurate in general we could feel more confident about planting early and knowing there would be enough rain for the trees to survive.'
The SOI indications also affect budgeting decisions for the company.
'If the Autumn SOI indicates that it will be dry for the next three months, the planting will be delayed. In the meantime the financial year may come to an end and the planting money won't get spent. We have to be flexible enough to carry that money over into the next financial year' said Oliver.
In the 49 years since planting first started, Australian Paper Plantations has only lost 905 hectares of plantation through fire. This is chiefly due to improved early detection techniques and improved rapid response to fires, in association with improvements in using weather and climate predictions for long-term and immediate responses.
The company is also better prepared for drought and tree survival rates in dry periods are far higher than in the early days. Oliver attributes this to better site preparation techniques, genetic improvements, better root systems and a lower density of trees per hectare, which actually results in more wood produced per hectare.
Oliver is keen for the development of a better climate prediction system for southern Australia.
'If climate information was more accurate we could make financial decisions on it, such as not having to keep a huge stockpile of wood at the mill as an insurance against not being able to log enough wood in wet years.'
'Most of our weather here comes up from the southern oceans and there are no weather stations out there' said Oliver.
'Researchers are looking at Indian Ocean temperatures and the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave. I believe when they work out how to link factors like those with the SOI, we will have better long-term results.'