Bernard and Kevin Perkins
'Round Island'
Quirindi, NSW

The past four years have seen a dramatic transformation of farming practices, not only on the Perkins' property 'Round Island', but in the entire district. 'Round Island' has been in the Perkins family since 1906. The property consists of 1200 hectares of black soil country, which all floods. The average rainfall is 650mm. Brothers Bern and Kevin Perkins grow sorghum, barley, wheat and sunflowers and graze around 100 head of cattle. Large areas of the Liverpool Plains area have severe drainage problems, resulting in waterlogging and potential salinity. In the past, farmers used long fallowing to grow their crops, potentially allowing the full moisture profile to cause waterlogging and erosion.

In 1996 climatologist Peter Hayman with NSW Agriculture in Tamworth began running 'Understanding the Climate' workshops. At the same time, agricultural extension officers began advocating a change in farming practices to zero-till agriculture.

Bern Perkins is involved with the Pine Ridge Landcare Group and Kevin is a member of a local farmers club called the Maximum Economic Yield club, known as MEY. Information about these new ideas began to filter through both the groups.

From 1995 Bern and Kevin began changing their own farming practices.

'Previously we used fallowing and some cultivation to prepare for crops. Now we crop continuously to use the rain once it falls rather than storing it' Bern said.

'By not ploughing the ground we leave the moisture in there, which allows us to fit another crop into the rotation. Yields per crop are not very different but there's an additional crop on a large portion of the property in most years.

'The whole district changed over pretty quickly. Zero-till is high input farming - it takes a lot of fertiliser and you don't get the stubble going into the soil and putting nitrogen back. But its more profitable and sustainable than conventional farming and substantially reduces the potential for soil erosion.'

The change in farming system opened up new opportunities for using climate information to improve management decisions and increase productivity.

'Because we use zero-till with all our country, as soon as the summer crop (sorghum or sunflowers) is harvested in April, there can be two to three feet of subsoil moisture there, which is plenty for us to go in and sow a barley or wheat crop in June or July instead of waiting for the following spring' said Bern.

'This is where our use of the SOI is critical. Most years we have to make the decision about planting a cereal crop following a summer crop. We look at the amount of subsoil moisture available, the SOI predictions until October/November and other factors like the price and the potential yield.

'If the SOI was telling us we'd be in for an average or above average year, we'd be confident to go in and plant a cereal crop directly into the country where we just had a summer crop. It just gives a bit more information about what we're likely to expect, even though it is a spin of the wheel every time with probabilities.'

In making his decisions, Bern uses his own rainfall records to find similar years, as well as the SOI and the seasonal predictions from Peter Hayman. Once the first decision about planting or not planting is made, climate information is used to influence other management decisions.

'You start making nuts and bolts decisions: will you plant all the country or just take the risk on some of it? The seasonal prediction will affect the seeding rate, the fertilizer rate and the type of crop that you grow. It also influences your marketing.

'In 1997 Peter Hayman was predicting a dry spring, but also saying that our local area wouldn't be too badly affected. The price of cereal grain was leaping up every day. I took a risk and forward-sold some grain' said Bern.

'It did rain in our area and I ended up getting a good crop. The price was a long way above what it was at harvest time. It was a risk based on the fact that we weren't going to be as badly off as some others. We got $25 per tonne higher than harvest prices.'

In 1998 the season was extremely wet. Bern and Kevin found there were only a few days were it would have been feasible to plant their winter cereal crops. The climate predictions for an average summer helped giving them the confidence to choose not to risk planting a winter crop and to go only with a summer crop.

'There were huge floods in July and August and a lot of country was lost and a lot of the cereal crops were lost' said Bern.

'Our decision was really nothing to do with the SOI, but the fact that it was already so wet was an indicator that it was likely to flood.

'During that wet period we forward-sold some sunflowers and sorghum at what turned out to be very good prices, on the prediction of some rain and because it was already very wet. And the people who did plant ended up losing their crops because of diseases or the crop ending up down the river.

'That was a lot of grain for us to sell forward, a lot more than we would normally do' said Bern. 'In the end we harvested our highest average ever that summer.'

'This year we've planted a whole lot of country without a lot of subsoil moisture because we were predicted to have average rain period from June to October-November. There was about a 60% chance of average rain, which we've had. So we've got a nice cereal crop planted on not much subsoil moisture' said Bern.

'We may have taken that risk anyway, but it's nice to know that the probabilities are on your side.'

Bern says that it's only been since 1997 that his climate-based decisions have resulted in some big wins.

Bern's climate wish list: more accurate predictions about summer rainfall from the spring SOI, and better knowledge about how Indian and Antarctic oceans affect his climate, to go with the information about the Pacific Ocean.

'It's important to remember that it's only a tool. It's not definitive by any means. You will have to spin the wheel and there's still the chance of the low probability being what actually happens in a season' said Bern.

'But it's a useful tool, especially when you're looking at a small margin and deciding about the risks you're going to take.'