Brett and Fran Francis
Rocky Glen
Kimba Eyre Peninsula

Eyre Peninsula farmers Brett and Fran Francis believe low rainfall cropping is on the brink of a revolution with climatic tools emerging as one of the most important ways to boost farm income, reduce risk and protect the environment. Case in point: in 1999 the Francis' prevented a loss of $150/ha. That's the saving Brett puts on a decision to give canola a miss when he reviewed indicators that put April rainfall on par with the lowest 10% on record, tipping the probability towards a bleak season. By contrast, the year before (1998) Brett expanded the cropping program on the strength of early indicators, sowing wheat earlier than normal to reap an extra $90/ha. He also enjoyed a handsome profit on canola. The peace of mind the Francis' have derived from using climate tools is evident as they recall savings in both 1994 and 1996 when they were swayed from sowing a potentially disastrous crop of lupins.

Wheat is the main earner on the couples' 2000 hectare farm near Kimba, in the heart of one of Australia's driest cropping zones where average rainfall is around 325mm. Barley, peas and canola break up the rotation in the better seasons. Like most farms on Upper Eyre, the size of the merino flock has been cut back.

"In low rainfall areas, it is easy to go backwards very quickly. Climate tools are a great way to reduce risk. We can make more money in the good seasons while saving costly mistakes in the bad," he says.

"The tools may not be perfect, but they are far better than working from hunches and living in hope.

"Of course, there is the lurking fear that we could be proved wrong, but this has rarely happened. My aim is to get objective information to back up my experience so I can make reasonable judgements about seasonal prospects."

Brett says climate tools bring a new level of professionalism to farming decisions that he predicts will gain favour in business circles.

"Our bank manager is aware we use these tools and that we know our break-even yields inside out. As we learn more, our plan is to present the bank with hard data to make it easier to do business."

Brett's interest in climate tools was sparked six years ago when he attended a workshop where South Australian Research and Development Institute scientist, Jim Egan, spoke about matching current rainfall with historical data to generate probabilities for poor, average or good opening seasons.

"The upshot was to look at trends around the break of the season and determine the likelihood that a certain amount of rain would fall over the growing season and produce anticipated yields. From the scenarios before us, the idea was then to scale up or down the area cropped, match crop choices, cultivars, timing of treatments and the selection of paddocks.

"It is critical we know break even yields. If the chance for a good season is high, we can consider increasing the area sown by 25% from the average and wind it right back in the poor."

These days Fran and Brett have continued their quest to digest climate information through an eight-member group of Eyre Peninsula farmers attached to the Kondinin Climate Risk and Yield Information Service.

While the internet remains elusive with a poor telephone exchange servicing the district, the Francis' concentrate their efforts on computer models, networks and consultants. The three key sources of information, central to their decision making include:

• 70 years of local rainfall charts. Brett uses deciles to compare rainfall for the current month, growing season or year with historical records. Decile 1, for example, represents the driest 10% while decile 10 represents the wettest 10%. Pre-season deciles are examined closely.
• SOWHAT. This is a sophisticated package designed for farms receiving less than 350 mm. Farm data from 1970 and yields are entered into the program. The program generates a scatter plot of historical yields for monthly rainfall. Brett looks at how current conditions compare with what has happened in the past and the probabilities for producing a below average, average or above-average wheat crop.
• A weekly fax from the Climate Risk and Yield Information Service. This year the faxes confirmed the property was sitting on the lowest decile in April and this remained so through the season.

Brett is committed to upgrading his climate skills and recently attended a Climate Risk Management Workshop run by SARDI and the Kondinin Group."I can highly recommend these workshops as there is always new information to learn. I'm now more confident about mapping out probabilities - at the end of the day it all helps when I've got to make the big dollar decisions."

At the workshop Brett also heard from Kondinin's David Buckley about developments in understanding the Indian Ocean Dipol and its influence on weather patterns. Climatologists believe the currents of warm and cold water in the Indian Ocean have an influence on the passage of fronts across Australia, but the information is hazy at this point.

"I like to hear about developments and encourage climatologists to keep looking so we can improve our decision making. The much famed SOI index is of very little use to us and we need better indicators for this region."

When seasonal prospects look poor the Francis' plan to reduce risk at Rocky Glen looks something like this:

• Plans to work up paddocks that could blow are put on hold as well as the purchase of high cost inputs.
• The poorest paddocks are eliminated from the cropping plan, particularly those with the poorest water holding capacity.
• Crops that require high break-even points to cover inputs costs like canola or lupins are scrapped.
• If conditions remain bleak, the area sown to wheat is cut back.
• An early maturing variety is selected for paddocks earmarked for sowing.

Brett's knowledge of climate is complemented by an array of computer packages that he uses to track the performance of his crops and their water use efficiency."We are looking to strike a balance with our production and the environment so that we use water efficiently and still remain profitable. We are doing something right. In the best paddocks, we have more than exceeded our water use efficiency potential to produce decent crops and good stubble cover to protect the topsoil until the next sowing."

Brett is keenly aware that pre-season rainfall patterns at Kimba are less reliable in predicting the season compared to other areas on Eyre. For this reason he says it is also important to study the latitudes in which the lows and highs move across Australia.

The cautious approach to his cropping plans for 1999 was confirmed when the highs sat low across the continent pushing the lows south. This established pattern resulted in the property missing out on important winter rainfall.

"Climatic data is backing up hunches or showing up hunches to be hunches. And as a manager we have to remember these are just tools. If something goes wrong on the rare occasion I'm not going to blame the tools. For the most part, they have proved their worth. From here, the tools can only get better."

(Acknowledgement to J. Balston developer and 1999 Climate Risk Management Workshop).